How Unexpected Election Results Affect Voter Satisfaction and Perception of Electoral Integrity

SAN ANTONIO — Are you obsessively scrolling through the latest poll averages? Are you worried about a loss in the election resulting in violence or that the result could signal the end of democracy? If so, you are not alone. Nearly seven in 10 Americans say that the upcoming election is a source of stress and anxiety.

Whether your favorite candidate wins or loses, the fact is that election results take time to be compiled and certified. This can lead to a lot of uncertainty, especially when there is a possibility of recounts and challenges. That’s why it’s important to have a plan for how you will approach election night. Make sure to get enough sleep, manage your screen time and spend the night with a supportive person. It’s also important to keep in mind that one election does not shape a nation; it takes ongoing efforts, diverse voices and people engaging every day.

Prior research has found that electoral outcomes are often unexpected. This is due in large part to partisan biases. For example, citizens who support the winning party are more likely to say they are satisfied with the way democracy works than those who supported the losing party (Anderson et al. 2005; Henderson 2008; Sinclair, Smith and Tucker 2018). Unexpectedness also relates to perceptions of electoral integrity. Specifically, citizens who think the elections were conducted fairly are more satisfied with the outcome of their votes than those who believe the elections were not (Brenan and Salzer 2020). The table below shows our main findings on these relationships.